Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0)
A Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC, is the climate pledge every country submits under the Paris Agreement: what it will cut, by when, and what it will cost. Nigeria submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution — NDC 3.0 — on 22 September 2025. This page sets out what is in it, and what it asks of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
What the pledge says
The target
A 32.2% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, measured against Nigeria’s 2018 emissions. 2018 is the base year: a real, past year, so progress has to be measured against recorded emissions rather than projected against a modelled “business as usual” line.
What it costs, and who pays
NDC 3.0 puts the cost of delivery at about $337bn: $195bn for mitigation, $141.5bn for adaptation and $0.5bn for Action for Climate Empowerment. Around $67bn is expected from domestic sources; about $270bn depends on international support. That international share is released against evidence, not against intent.
Economy-wide, and mostly subnational
The Nationally Determined Contribution covers the whole economy — energy, transport, agriculture and land use, waste, and adaptation to floods, drought and heat. Almost all of that is planned, budgeted and delivered by state governments, not by Abuja.
Reporting obligations
Under the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework, Nigeria has to report progress in Biennial Transparency Reports: emissions accounted for, money spent, results achieved. Those reports are assembled from what states can document.
What the Nationally Determined Contribution requires states to be able to show
Four capabilities carry the pledge. Each one has to be evidenced with a primary, dated public document. These are the counts from the FY2025 release — how many of the 37 jurisdictions can show each one today.
Nigeria is asking for about $270bn of international support against systems that, today, 2 of 37 states can document. That is the gap the Climate Action Index measures — and for most states it closes with paperwork, not with new money. A measure with no qualifying public document is recorded as not shown, never as inaction.
Where the index fits
The Climate Action Index does not divide Nigeria’s national target into state quotas, and no state gains or loses points for its share of the pledge. What the index measures is readiness: whether a jurisdiction can currently produce the documents the Nationally Determined Contribution and its reporting obligations depend on.